Do others playing incorrectly impact your chances in Blackjack?
Monday, February 13th, 2012 at
7:04 pm
When others at your table are not playing Blackjack/21 correctly (i.e. not standing on 6 vs. 6, etc) … do they really substantially impact the chances of everyone else at the table?
Is there any statistical study done proving to what degree they hurt everyone else?
Tagged with: Blackjack • statistical study
Filed under: Blackjack
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Look, every card that comes out before you make your play affects the odds of you winning or losing your hand. Anyone who understands the concept of card counting or has any common mathematical sense can tell you that.
The caveat to that is that whether they are playing right or wrong makes no difference. They’re just as likely (on average) to draw a card that helps you as one that hurts you. So while it can be annoying to sit with a player who continually makes wrong moves, it really doesn’t make any difference in the long term. While it can be frustrating, there’s really no reason to freak out about someone playing wrong.
Regardless of what pdq thinks, long term or short term the answer is "no".
A lot of people are saying the same thing, but in various ways. Let me clarify.
In the SHORT term, of course it impacts you. In the LONG term, no.
In the short term, if someone hits 16 against the dealers "5", (which they shouldn’t), and YOU have an "11" and want to double down, and you’re sitting right after that person, YES – they get the card that you otherwise would have gotten. So for that hand, yes – it affects the card that you would have gotten.
In the long run, SO WHAT? Maybe they hit a "4" or a "5" and end up letting you hit a face card so you can get "21". Great! They helped you that time. Maybe they hit the face card, (the one that would have given you "21", and instead, you end up getting a "2". Bummer – Their decision hurt you that time. In the long run, it really doesn’t matter.
Long story short, the cards left in the deck do NOT know whether or not someone’s decision was good or bad. The cards that come out are going to be the cards that come out.
Allow me to echo an important thing that someone else said – you only remember the times when the person HURT you. You quickly forget all the times that someone hit when they shouldn’t have and it saved the table.
http://wizardofodds.com/
try this website he has written lots on bj and I think in the bj section that very question
"Do others playing incorrectly impact your chances in Blackjack?"
Absolutely, 100% NO. This is one of the many blackjack myths. A "bad player" is just as likely to "hurt you" as he is to "help you."
"Is there any statistical study done proving to what degree they hurt everyone else?"
Probably. Everything else regarding blackjack studies has been done. If you are a computer programmer, you can write your own blackjack program and simulate a million or so hands, and compare the results when a "bad player" is at the table vs when one is not. But even common sense tells you his "bad" decisions will "balance out" and will not affect your own chances at all.
They can hurt you and help you. Since no one knows which cards are coming out of the deck, no one knows who gets hurt or helped. There is an expression called "play your own hand". Everyone should do that and ignore the play of everyone else. There is another expression called, "Your butt is not glued to the chair." That applies when you lose 3 hands in a row (change tables) or someone else is screwing up your play (change tables).
ONe time I sat down at a blackjack table and a guy was splitting 20′s. I immediately got up and left. I did not want to play blackjack with someone who splits 20′s so I found another table. It is that easy. I did not get annoyed. He did not get annoyed. He was free to split 20′s all he wanted for all I cared and I found a table of players who play more to my liking. That’s a win/win.
No. You just notice when their play effects your outcome for that single hand. There are many times that people do what they should, and if they played ‘wrong’, you would’ve won, but you don’t think about that. I used to get angry when people would hit hard 16 vs. a 5, but now I just laugh. ;)
Directly, of course. If they take a card that should have been yours, then the hands change.
Overall, things even out and it won’t affect things overall, but people only like to remember when a move hurts the table.
Not really, no. Your decisions remain the same.
Good morning Cjrossi,
I hope you are having a great day. We just finished the last of our Christmas gifts. Each year we can and dry fruits and vegetables from our trees and garden. Each friend and relative receives a big basket filled with quart jars of peaches, plums, pickles, pickled green cherry tomatoes, jams, and dried and fresh fruits.
Cjrossi, the answer to your question is YES. I do not believe there is a statistical study except my own studies for years and years. I guarantee Las Vegas Casinos know the answer is YES. You should watch the 2003 movie “The Cooler”. Although the movie is about craps, it is based on the same concept. Or you should have been with me when Las Vegas placed “Coolers” at my Blackjack tables. I know of eight (8) people who would also answer YES to your question, and they have been beating Las Vegas, Tahoe, and Indian Casinos for over forty (40) years. I know this answer will receive a lot of thumbs down, but I could care less. I am just trying to answer your question, because I have NEVER lost playing blackjack. I also know that you know something is wrong, otherwise you would not have asked this question.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cooler
I was hired as a Longshoremen (I.L.W.U.), long money, at age 19. I have watched or shot more street dice, shot more pool, and played more poker/cards on the docks of San Pedro in one week than most people play in years. I have watched men shot dice ALL DAY. I have watched poker games go on all WEEKEND many times.
I would love to write a short quick answer to your question. But Cjrossi it is impossible to write about something I know most people on Yahoo answers and yourself would not understand. All gamblers think they are the best with gigantic egos. They treat gambling as a challenge.
Example: How does a combat veteran explain what war is like to someone who has not been there? How do I explain MY meaning for the Law of Averages and the Laws of “Probability”? Most gamblers play and read books on the Law of Averages. Anyone can learn this law.
What do I mean “Almost all gamblers play by the law of averages? They are just like a slot machine. They will have a lot of money the first hour. The next hour they will be down to almost nothing or broke. The Law of Averages will catch up with them. But they know all the odds. Some can even quote the odds. The Law of Averages is just like SCIENCE. Something someone has proven or can prove. GAMBLING IS NOT A SCIENCE. There is something else behind gambling.
The Law of Probability is totally difference. My understanding is if I flip a coin, the Laws of Average states there is a fifty-fifty (50%) chance of heads or tails. The Law of Probability states, I may flip “heads” a hundred (100%) straight times without flipping “Tails”. I call the Laws of Probability riding a “HOT STREAK, in the FAST LANE, or just plain LUCK.” The Law of Probability applies to every gambling game.
Because of my years of gambling, I watch for what I call, “signs” which signals when a gambler is riding a HOT STREAK, in the FAST LANE, or LUCK. I have always made more money riding other gamblers than shooting the dice myself. Most of them think they got lucky, and they did. Yet, I made all the money betting with them on the side. The Law of Probability is just like Philosophy.
It takes YEARS and YEARS of gambling to recognize these signs. Once a person learns to recognize these signs he must also know what to do. Rather you are shooting/playing pool, craps, poker, Blackjack or horses, recognizing these signs will show you how much to bet, when to bet, and the most important when to QUIT. Only EXPERIENCE will teach you the signs. Problem is most people would not know or have any idea of what to look for.
SIGN #1: Cjrossi, you always leave a Blackjack table when someone is playing bad. This is the sign, “When to quit”. For some reason Lady Luck will disappear. This sign can be broken, only for a SHORT period of time, if the bad player is BOTH totally drunk and has a huge stack of chips.
Many times I actually watch, without playing, tables for hours and days looking for a “sign”. These signs do not come often, but they can last for a long period of time. I work too hard for my money.
I always look and play along with the Law of Probability. It is always there. Cjrossi, you just do not recognize it. With your own question, you have seen a sign. I hope this will be a beginning. Stand back sometimes, watch, and learn. I am always more than happy to share years and years of knowledge.
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AqlT5wTamT5j4myqja2Ac_nty6IX;_ylv=3?qid=20100518175242AAzfPfZ
You and your family have a beautiful week. Peace, from Los Angeles.